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Part 1 – Democracies in dispute
Introduction
As we have pointed out in previous editions, in recent years sexual politics has become inseparable from the dynamics of de-democratization and authoritarianism that have been growing around the world – with particular strength in the Americas and Europe, where democratic regimes seemed to be firmly established. Everywhere, gender and sexuality are dimensions to be considered in these conditions and reconfigurations, but their centrality as a target for anti-democratic forces is particularly evident in these two regions, which, over the last decade, have been the main stage for anti-gender policies. In this context, our first bulletin of 2024 pays special attention to elections, since there are 69 national elections this year, as well as the European Parliament elections. On June 6, when we finished the Portuguese edition, 28 of these elections had already taken place.
Several of these elections have defined or will define political directions in very significant contexts, such as South Africa, India, Mexico, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Uruguay, and, finally, the United States in November, the results of which will largely determine the future of world democracy. For this reason, the Regional Forum on Pending and Emerging Issues, a joint regional initiative of SPW, Akahatá, Promsex, Puentes/Bridges, and Synergia, has planned a day of debates on this electoral cycle and its results.
The publishing of this newsletter is a contribution to that debate. This has meant a greater volume of material, which is why, for the first time, the bulletin is organized into two volumes. The first is dedicated to examining, from a bird’s eye view, the electoral processes of the first half of 2024 and their background, and the second analyzes our usual agenda of sexual politics. This also meant that its publication was delayed to cover the results of four very significant elections at the end of May and the beginning of June: South Africa, Mexico, India, and the European Parliament.
Happy reading!
Sonia Corrêa, Fábio Grotz, Nana Soares, and Tatiane Amaral
SPW activities and content
Between February and June, two debates related to the content of this newsletter were held. In February, a dialogue took place between activists from Argentina, Brazil, and El Salvador on how to sustain resistance in situations of extreme de-democratization, the report of which will be published very soon. And we began the journey towards the 2024 elections with debates on elections in Latin America (May 7) and the United States (June 4).
We invite Brazilian readers to listen to the series of podcasts we are making in partnership with Labjor, from the Department of Communication at UNICAMP, based on the content of the Little Dictionary of Ambiguous Terms in the Current Political Debate. Episodes on “Gender Ideology” and “Christophobia” have already been aired, and “Reverse Racism” and “Patriotism” are currently in production.
We also recommend two articles. The first is the Portuguese translation of Françoise Girard’s article on the resurgence of pro-natalist ideology associated with the rise of the right and the resurgence of authoritarianism. We also updated an article (in Portuguese) by Marco Aurélio Prado on the 2018 São Paulo LGBTQIA+ Pride Parade. The postscript, written in partnership with Nana Soares, revisits issues that were addressed four years ago in the light of the current situation..
Wars and de-democratization
Since October, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has been generating grim images and figures: in the devastated Gaza Strip, according to the UN, more than 5% of the enclave’s population of 2.2 million is dead, injured, or missing, and it is estimated that at least 10,000 children have lost their lives. At the same time, it’s as if the Ukraine conflict, which has been dragging on since 2022 with no prospect of a resolution, is “becoming normal”, as France 24 article shows. There are other armed conflicts taking place both near these conflict zones and in other areas.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have also revealed the multilateral system’s inability to stop large-scale conflicts, as had already been the case in the early 2000s when Iraq was invaded, the inaugural war of the 21st century. Today, however, this incapacity extends to humanitarian aid, which, as a BBC article shows, has been systematically obstructed in Gaza.
In such circumstances, the criminal actions brought before the International Criminal Court (ICC) by several countries and, more particularly, the case brought by South Africa before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at the end of December 2023, are especially relevant [1]. At the end of January, the ICJ ruled that Israel must take all necessary measures to prevent the genocide in Gaza. As this newsletter was being finalized in May, both courts issued even stronger rulings. The court ordered Israel to suspend operations in Rafah and Hamas to immediately hand over the hostages who were still alive. At the ICC, prosecutor Karin Khan asked the judges to consider issuing arrest warrants against Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri, and Ismail Haniyeh, as well as against the Israeli prime minister and defense minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallan.
Nothing indicates that Israel or Hamas will respect these decisions. In fact, as this text was being written, Rafah was once again being bombed. But even so, they should be read as positive signs that contrast with the silence and inaction that prevail in relation to the war in Ukraine. In addition, the positions of the two courts coincide with an intense wave of student protests in the US, Canada, and other countries against the genocide in Gaza. At the same time, there has been a gradual abandonment of the automatic alignment of European countries with Israel, as well as the breaking off of diplomatic relations. In January, the European Parliament passed a motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and, in May, Spain, Ireland, and Norway finally recognized the state of Palestine. At the end of May, Chile signed the motion presented by South Africa, and Brazil permanently withdrew its ambassador from Israel. The coming months will certainly be marked by the unfolding of these developments and realignments.
Continuing de-democratization
The wars of the 21st century and related conflicts are not unrelated to the dynamics of autocratization and de-democratization that characterize the global scene. The invasion of Ukraine, for example, is directly linked to the expansionism of Putin’s authoritarian regime. According to the 2024 V-DEM report, “Democracy winning and losing at the ballot“, Israel no longer qualifies as a liberal democracy. In the United States, as analyzed in a Nexo article, the Biden administration’s unwavering alignment with Israel could adversely affect electoral results by alienating the youth of the Democratic Party. This was evident when a young Jewish advisor to the presidential staff, Lily Greenberg, resigned from her post, declaring that she could no longer represent the administration due to President Biden’s appalling support for genocide.
In addition to the situations most directly affected by these two great wars, the figures in V-DEM 2024 also show that democratic degradation is worsening in several other areas. In 2023, 71% of the world’s population (5.7 billion people) lived under autocratic regimes, although the degree of political repression varies. This is the same level as in 1985. Since 2009, the percentage of people living in autocratic systems has exceeded that of those living in electoral and liberal democracies. Steven Forti, in an article in Nueva Sociedad, gives ample cause for concern about the results of the 2024 electoral cycle in the Americas and Europe, where these democracies are concentrated, due to the intense efforts of the ultra-right to win these elections.
A sequence of public events since February illustrates this growing cross-border coordination capacity. According to Argentinian journalist Juan Elman, the CPAC meeting in Washington in February was a “stage for Trump’s revenge”. At the beginning of April, a conference of the Nationalist Conservatives bringing together icons of the European ultra-right was planned for Brussels, also with electoral objectives. The event sparked protests and restrictive measures by the local authorities, the effects of which were mainly negative [2]. At the end of the month, CPAC met again in Budapest, also to discuss electoral prospects, as Jamil Chade reported in UOL. The atmosphere at the meeting was evident in Eduardo Bolsonaro’s speeches attacking the STF’s investigations into the 2022 coup plotters and José Antonio Kast calling Gabriel Boric a “woke” president.
Finally, on May 18 and 19, these same forces met again in Madrid, under the auspices of Vox, to raise the profile of their leaders and their agendas for the European elections in June. On that occasion, in response to the grotesque insults directed by Javier Milei at Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Spain summoned its ambassador to Argentina back to Madrid. This episode was interpreted by historian Felipe Pigna as a sign that Milei aspires to become a leader of the transnational ultra-right in an excellent interview that also addresses Milei’s other traits.
Background to the 2024 elections
Before examining the first results of the 2024 elections, it is worth looking back – albeit briefly – at the political dynamics of 2023, the effects of which are still being felt and are having an impact on the national and regional circumstances in which the new elections are taking place.
Starting with Asia, it is necessary to mention a serious armed conflict that is somehow hidden in the shadow of Ukraine and Gaza. In Myanmar, the popular reaction against the military coup in 2021 became an open armed conflict last year, and the army is losing ground. But, as France 24 reports, there is no political solution in the short term, given the positions adopted by China, India, and Thailand concerning the conflict.
Also in Southeast Asia, Cambodia’s long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen continued his dynasty by having his son elected in a vote considered rigged by outside observers. Since then, according to Project Syndicate, arrests and murders of opponents, journalists, and union leaders have proliferated. Similarly, in Sri Lanka, as Human Rights Watch’s report shows, the government that took over after the economic crisis and protests of 2022 has repressed opponents and proposed new laws to combat terrorism and regulate NGOs that threaten fundamental rights and freedoms.
Africa
In 2023 in Egypt, a pro-forma election gave General Sisi a new mandate. In sub-Saharan Africa, where since 2021 the military had seized power in eight countries, and there were many localized armed conflicts [3], there were additional coups in Gabon and Niger last year. In the first case, the coup took place following elections; in Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, post-election coups were also attempted. In Senegal, a serious crisis erupted when opposition leader Ousmane Sonko was arrested on rape charges, and Macky Sall’s government brutally repressed the protests. As DW’s annual review shows, the region faced enormous challenges in 2023.
Europe
In 2023, European electoral dynamics were a paradox. In Spain, the general elections called by Pedro Sánchez resulted in a new PSOE government and reduced the presence of Vox in the national parliament, but this did not reduce the virulence of the ultra-right’s attacks on the prime minister. In Poland, the ultranationalist Law and Justice Party was defeated by Donald Tusk, the current prime minister, which calmed the political climate in Eastern Europe and opened up space for abortion rights and sexual diversity.
Right-wing populism has also gained ground in other countries. The Swiss People’s Party, 30 years ago considered a fringe extremist party, won the October parliamentary elections by a wide margin. In November in the Netherlands, Geert Wilders‘ Freedom Party, whose electoral gains have been growing steadily, was victorious in the parliamentary elections, winning 35 of the 150 seats in Parliament. This led to the formation of a coalition with radical positions against immigration and openly aligned with the Netanyahu government.
Latin America
On the one hand, as was expected, the repression in Nicaragua has intensified, as can be seen in this compilation, of which we particularly recommend an interview with Teresa Blandón and an article by Mónica Baltodano. Also, Venezuelan political conditions have worsened, as illustrated by the referendum called by Maduro to annex a vast territory of neighboring Guyana, which has sparked many concerns in neighboring countries, especially Brazil.
On the other hand, the year’s electoral results were surprising and disturbing. In Ecuador, the assassination of one of the candidates affected the outcome of the elections, and in January, the newly elected right-wing government of Daniel Noboa declared a state of emergency and declared an “internal armed conflict”. Since then, there has been institutional degradation, the most serious incident of which has been the police raid on the Mexican embassy in April to rescue former Vice-President Jorge Glas, analyzed in detail by the BBC.
The Argentine situation looks bleak following the inauguration of Javier Milei, whose victory had not been predicted. His inauguration on December 20 made Buenos Aires a new hotspot for the transnational right. Since then, the new president, who does not have a parliamentary majority, has resorted to “chaos as a governance method”, as was also seen in Brazil in the early days of the Bolsonaro government. At the same time, Milei has adopted much more drastic measures to cut public spending and scrap social policies, most of which are now grouped under the Ministry of Human Capital. Another striking difference with Brazil is that, as our compilation shows, since December, Argentinians have taken to the streets with great force despite police repression. The March 8 marches were lively, as were the protests against the dismantling of public education in Buenos Aires and other cities. For a better understanding of the situation, it’s worth following the Argentine Observatory.
In electoral terms, however, good news comes from Guatemala, where the elites – who comprise the “pact of the corrupt” – were defeated electorally but created all sorts of obstacles to prevent Bernardo Arévalo from taking office. The new president finally took office on January 15, 2024, a victory whose significance is especially relevant in Central America, where left-wing and right-wing autocracies coexist.
Finally, it’s necessary to discuss Brazil, judged by the V-DEM 2024 report as an example of countering de-democratization. This assessment was due to the 2022 election results, the robustness of the investigations into January 8, and the post-election attempt to stage a military coup involving Bolsonaro, some of his military ministers, and other political figures. It is also due to the judicial initiatives and legislative proposals to regulate digital platforms to contain their effects of political disinformation. Despite these achievements, Brazilian conditions are very ambiguous.
For example, the efforts to contain anti-democratic forces and to regulate digital platforms explain Elon Musk’s virulent attack on judge Alexandre de Moraes, which had widespread repercussions in Brazil and around the world. This somewhat surprising clash demonstrates once again the strategic relevance of Brazil for the transnational ultra-right. It also demonstrates the vitality of the domestic ultra-right despite the convictions of Bolsonaro and his allies, which can be seen in the street demonstrations at the beginning of 2024 (here and here).
Especially in Congress, the alliances between the ultra-right and “Centrão’ Congress’ caucus have created growing obstacles for governance in this complex situation of democratic disintegration. Gender and sexuality issues are constantly at play in these complex games, and there are also growing signs of discomfort with federal management on the left. In this context, the municipal elections in October 2024 will be a crucial moment to gauge the robustness of Brazil’s democratic reconstruction.
The 2024 elections: first results
As Idea International’s map shows, between January and May, 27 of the year’s elections were held. This group includes several autocratic regimes where elections are a sham, such as Belarus, Iran, and Russia; fragile electoral democracies, such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Senegal, and El Salvador; and consolidated democracies where the right was in power, as in India, or on the rise, as in European countries.
The “sham” elections
Starting with the first group, the results were as expected: maintenance of the status quo. In the case of Iran, however, the death of President Ibrahim Raisi means that new elections will be held soon. It is unclear how this will affect Iran’s position in the Israel-Gaza conflict. Most importantly, as Amnesty International points out, Raisi’s death cannot settle the debt owed to the victims of the brutal repression he inflicted on the popular feminist rebellion of 2022.
The Russian elections were no surprise either. Putin, who has been in power for more than 20 years, received 87% of the votes and, according to many analysts, will remain in power until he dies. With regard to the Russian elections, we recommend the article “El ginete de bronce“, by Sergio Ramirez. In it, the Nicaraguan dissident harshly criticizes the Latin American left’s support for the Russian regime, identifying the ideological connections between Putin and the Western ultra-right that these leftists claim to be fighting.
Asia and the Pacific
In Asia, elections were held in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia. As we were finishing this issue, the Indian election, the most important regionally, which lasts 44 days and in which 970 million people take part, came to an end. Two other elections were held in the Pacific, in Tuvalu and Kiribati.
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was re-elected for a fifth term, a vote which was boycotted by opposition parties and criticized by international observers (see Al Jazeera, Associated Press, and IDS). In Pakistan, where politics is historically marked by dynastic bias and religious tensions, Azif Zardari, Benazir Bhutto’s widower, was elected president in an arrangement with the Muslim League, which appointed the prime minister. In Indonesia, former general Prabowo Subianto was elected, the candidate of the current president, against whom there are accusations of human rights violations during the occupation of East Timor. This is disturbing, as Indonesia is part of a region where, since the 1990s, there has been a very positive social and institutional trend regarding the protection of human rights.
At stake in the Indian elections was the third term of Narendra Modi, leader of the BJP, the largest and richest political party in the world. Elected in 2014, as the excellent article by Fábio L. B. dos Santos examines, Modi installed a regime in which autocratism and neoliberalism are intertwined and whose neo-fascist traits worsened after his re-election in 2019. Since then, there has been systematic persecution of opponents, repression of social protests, and increasing control of the judiciary and of the electoral system. Its hallmark is Saffronization, the consolidation of Hindu nationalism that incites systematic communal violence against the Islamic population and other religious minorities and is steadily eroding secularism, the original defining feature of the Indian constitution.
In the 2024 elections, Modi faced challenges. Since 2022, Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Congress Party, has walked across the country mobilizing the people, and in the 2023 state elections, the BJP lost control of three states, including Karnataka (India’s so-called Silicon Valley). These mobilizations had repercussions because although opinion polls, including exit polls, predicted a landslide victory for the BJP, this did not transpire.
In 2024, the BJP won the largest share of Lok Sabha seats, but with a simple majority. The Congress Party more than doubled its representation. Modi will be forced to negotiate, which will certainly make the radical constitutional reforms he was planning more difficult. We’ve compiled an extensive overview of these results. To begin with, we recommend Pratab Bahnu Metha’s article in the Indian Express, which assesses the result as the beginning of the end of a dark period when Narendra Modi is no longer the deity he aspires to be. He is back to being an ordinary politician who will be faced with a congress that is not subservient.
Africa
In sub-Saharan Africa, elections were held in Togo, the Comoros, Madagascar, Senegal, and South Africa, the latter two being the most important. The Senegalese election scheduled for February was influenced by the 2023 crisis and only took place in March, after a serious risk of institutional breakdown. Ten days before the elections, protests broke out and were harshly repressed by the Sall government, which also clamped down on the media and ordered the election suspended. The Constitutional Court, however, guaranteed the integrity of the electoral process, which gave a victory to opposition leader Diomaye Faye, now the youngest president on the continent. Sonko was appointed prime minister of a government that aims to implement a policy defined as independent and Africanist. To learn more about Senegal’s dynamics, see this compilation.
On May 31, the South African election took place in which President Cyril Ramaphosa of the African National Congress (ANC) was the favorite. However, in the seventh presidential election since the end of apartheid in 1994, the ANC faced not only the DA, the opposition since then, and 15 other minority parties, but also two splinters from the party: Julius Malema‘s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and former President Jacob Zuma‘s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK). The ANC received only 40% of the vote, compared to 57% in 2019. The DA received 22%, Zuma’s party 15%, and the EFF 9.5%. For the first time since the 1990s, the ANC will have to form a coalition to govern. As DW and other analysts have noted, however, not only the ANC’s hegemony was at stake in this election. The abstention rate of 58% compared to 67% in 2019 reveals the strong disbelief and distrust of the electorate, especially young people, with regard to a democratic regime contaminated by corrupt and incompetent practices that has not delivered the promised social equality. We’ve compiled an analysis of the election and its repercussions.
Latin America
In 2023, the Latin American political situation was not particularly auspicious. Moreover, as Juan de la Torre pointed out in the Democracies in Dispute debate, it is now very difficult to predict electoral political trends in the region due to unusual internal dynamics and new geopolitical conditions. In this uncertain climate, four elections have been held since January 2024: in El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Panama, and Mexico. In the first two, the presidents were re-elected, and in Panama the candidate supported by the former president who, accused of money laundering, is in exile in the Nicaraguan embassy, was victorious. In both cases, the results mean the continuation of conservative governments. In the Dominican Republic, Luis Abidaner’s victory will have, among other effects, the intensification of racism against Haitian migrants since the president has pledged to finish the wall separating the two countries. In Panama, the election of Raul Mulino, a former security minister, is likely to mean a strengthening of neoliberal policies and possibly tougher measures against migration and crime.
The case of El Salvador is exemplary, where Nayib Bukele won a second term with more than 85% of the votes cast, foreshadowing a long autocratic path and cementing the idea that he had created a model policy for crime control. In our extensive compilation, we recommend Juan Elman’s analysis of the complex logic of Bukele’s discourse and how it has captured the popular imagination in which the president is as important or more important than “god”. Since El Salvador is home to a strong feminist movement, Beatriz Guillén’s article reveals Bukele’s treatment of women. On June 1, Bukele took office in a heavily militarized ceremony attended by Milei, Daniel Noboa, and Donald Trump Jr., as well as Xiomara Castro, Rodrigo Chavez, and the king of Spain, which suggests that El Salvador is becoming a hub for the transnational ultra-right.
In Mexico, the election results were a continuation, but with mixed signals, as they confirmed the hegemony of MORENA, led by López Obrador, the first left-wing party to govern the country. This was a massive election with 20,000 candidates vying for office and more than 90 million people eligible to vote. Obrador’s stewardship of economic and social policy has ensured continuity, but it has not been without its critics, as he has centralized power and shown populist tendencies, failed to curb the expansion of cartels and structural violence (120,000 people have disappeared and hundreds of journalists have been murdered), and attacked the electoral system and the judiciary [4].
Political violence is nothing new in Mexico, but in the 2024 elections, it was brutal. According to the Global Initiative Against Organized Crime, since June 2023, 80 people have been murdered, 34 of them candidates for elected office. In contrast, the election will go down as a milestone in the history of electoral politics, as two women contested the presidency: the winner Claudia Sheinbaum, the MORENA candidate, and Xóchitl Gálvez, representing an opposition coalition that brought together the historical enemies PRI, PRD, and PAN. As Flor Alcaráz analyzes in an article in El Diario AR, the Mexican electoral scene exemplifies a new era in which politics is being feminized on the left and right of the political spectrum.
Sheinbaum, who won the election with 59% of the total vote, won a majority in practically every region and demographic group and was even more voted by men than by women. Those who showed the most resistance to the former mayor of Mexico City were young people, while poorer people showed broad support for the MORENA candidate. A scientist with a progressive profile, she will govern a country with a machista and violent tradition. And she was elected to succeed a very popular president who was also macho and centralizing and left a difficult legacy of structural violence. It will be necessary to closely follow Mexican politics to understand exactly what these results mean. We’ve compiled an analysis of the Mexican situation.
Europe
Elections have already taken place in Finland, Slovakia, Croatia, and Portugal. In Finland, the victory of the center-right, after many decades of social-democratic governments, was determined by the country’s accession to NATO following the invasion of Ukraine. In Slovakia, after a fierce second round, the right returned to power with a populist leader aligned with Moscow, as well as Prime Minister Fico, who in May was the victim of an assassination attempt which he survived. In Croatia, the center-right party that was in power won the elections but without an absolute majority, and in May there were strong signs that it would form a coalition with the Patriotic Movement of Croatia, a far-right group.
The Portuguese elections in March were more complex. An alliance of the traditional right (AD) defeated the Socialist Party without obtaining an absolute majority, and Chega, a far-right party that had only one deputy in 2019, obtained 48 votes in the National Assembly. There was great fear that, in negotiations, an agreement with Chega would be cemented. However, at the end of March, a minority coalition was formed that ruled out any possibility of alliances with the far right (see compilation).
Above all, the electoral risks of 2024 have stirred up democratic and anti-fascist sentiments in Portuguese society. On April 25, the streets of Lisbon and the country were filled with celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, a unique political event in modern history in which anti-colonial African struggles resulted in the end of the longest-lasting fascist regime in history. To learn more about this celebration, we recommend the special issue of O Público.
European Parliament elections
Finally, and most importantly, as already mentioned, the far-right has made the European Union parliamentary elections a priority objective. Unexpected reconfigurations have occurred to achieve this goal, such as the alliance proposal made by Marine Le Pen to Giorgia Meloni after the leader of the French far-right publicly broke with the German AdF. No less important, several previous analyses have shown how and where electoral support for the far-right has grown, with its attraction to young people being particularly worrying.
The results of June 10 largely coincided with what had been predicted: the far right has indeed grown. This has not happened uniformly across the countries in the bloc, but the triumph of these forces was evident in France and Germany, pillars of the European Union, which will certainly affect bloc dynamics. Immediately, in light of the result, Macron dissolved parliament and called elections for the end of June. Preliminary polls indicate a victory for the RN, Le Pen’s party. The losses of the social-democratic and left-wing parties were also significant in the European Parliament.
Nonetheless, the new European panorama needs to be seen with nuance, as Pablo Stefanoni suggests in an article published on the Nueva Sociedad website. In a significant number of countries, the far-right had less impressive results; in Sweden, Finland, Portugal, Denmark, and Spain, their gains were limited. In Italy, the Democratic Party received as much support as Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli. In Poland, the alliance led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk had more votes than PiS. It is especially important to note that in Hungary, Orbán’s Fidesz had its lowest vote in 18 years, an effect of the protests that took place there in April. Orbán took to social media to celebrate the gains of the far-right, but in fact, he was not an icon of these elections, whose salient characters were Marine Le Pen and Giorgia Meloni, as well as Alice Weidel, the less visible leader of the German AfD. We must also consider Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, whose role was decisive in ensuring a substantial center-right vote. Europe has emerged from this election much more to the right and with a woman’s face.
Elections ahead
In Asia and the Pacific, seven elections are scheduled to take place between June and December 2024: in the Solomon Islands, South Korea, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, Syria, and Jordan. Another 12 elections are scheduled for Africa: in Mauritius, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, South Sudan, Chad, Tunisia, Algeria, Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso, and Ghana. Some of these elections will be pro forma – as in Syria, Sudan, Algeria, and Mauritania – while others do not even have set dates, such as in Burkina Faso and Guinea-Bissau. Some will be politically significant, as in South Korea, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, Ghana, and Tunisia.
The elections in Europe and the Americas, although fewer in number, are significant. General elections in the United Kingdom will be held in early July, called early by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Polls indicate a victory for the Labour Party, which has been out of power since 2010, by more than 20% of the vote. An excellent analysis by British Open Democracy shows how the financial market and big money, which consider this victory a foregone conclusion, are already in action to influence the new government.
Venezuelan elections will follow, which, by all indications, will for the first time have the unfettered participation of the opposition. If this happens, it will be due to firmer negotiations conducted by left-wing leaders who have abandoned their complacency with the Maduro regime after the crisis with Guyana and the exclusion of the opposition candidate in February. The challenges of democratic reconstruction in Venezuela, however, continue to be colossal.
In October, the Uruguayan elections will take place, which, as Pablo Alvarez analyzed in the Pending and Emerging Dialogues panel, foresee the victory of the Frente Amplio and the implosion of Cabildo Abierto, the far-right party that burst onto the electoral scene in 2019.
The 2024 electoral cycle culminates with the US elections in November, the predicted results of which are uncertain and potentially disastrous. Gillian Kane, in an article for In These Times, analyzes how Project 2025, led by the Heritage Foundation to guide Trump’s policies, is already in effect being implemented. As this report was being finalized, at the end of May, Donald Trump was unanimously convicted by a jury of having bought the silence of sex worker and former porn star Stormy Daniels. The repercussions of the verdict were massive.
This is not the first time that someone convicted in court has run for US president. In 1920, socialist Eugene Debs ran while in prison, as did far-right conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche in 1991. Nor is it the first time that sexuality has drastically intersected major American politics. However, in 2024, the potential effects of this intersection will have effects beyond the country’s borders. It is not clear how the trial will affect the elections. However, since the beginning of the year, gloomy predictions have been made about a second term for Trump, the most recent of which was published by the New York Times on June 7. While it is important to be clear about these projected scenarios, as Anat Shenker-Osorio highlighted in the Pending and Emerging Dialogues debate, the electoral race is not over.
> Part 2 of this newsletter discusses sexual politics from January to June 2024. <
We recommend
Academic and press articles
How Will AMLO’s Presidency Be Remembered? – The Nation
Elon Musk’s Diplomacy: Woo Right-Wing World Leaders. Then Benefit. – NY Times
Gender and Anti-Gender: Complex Legacies of US Global Power and Influence – Susan Stryker – Gate
Project 2025 Is Already Here – NY Times
Why Plutocrats Are Rallying to Trump – The Nation
A right-wing Europe is here to stay – Washington Post
How women party workers are reshaping Indian politics – India Express
How Karnataka’s civil society groups are taking on the Hindutva juggernaut – The News Minute
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Footnotes
[1] Two individual criminal liability cases were brought before the ICC, the first in November 2023 by South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros, and Djibouti, and the second in January 2024 by Mexico and Chile. The case brought before the ICJ at the end of December against Israel for war crimes and genocide was subsequently signed by 70 other countries.